Real Betis sudden transformation
To hear people suggest Real Betis as one of the big Spanish under-achievers in recent years isn’t something rare, and it’s justified. Top 6 spots and Copa del Rey semi-finals have been mixed with relegation and board chaos. Their 19/20 campaign was one of the worst with the 15th place Rubi led them to which was well below expectations, so when the merited Manuel Pellegrini got appointed this summer the expectations rightfully rised.
With an attack consisting of players like Sergio Canales and Nabil Fekir, two guys who solve a lot as soon as the ball reaches the final third of the pitch, and the defense conceding 60 goals last season (second most in the league) it was primarily the latter that needed fixing.
The line-up above is the one who Pellegrini considers his best at the moment, but it took a whole lot of experimenting to get there. The start of the season was rough with seven losses during their first 11 games and 23 conceded goals, more than they’ve conceded in all games since (16). But it would eventually change and fitting enough it was right around New Year’s Eve, because Real Betis pre- and post this day are two completely different football teams. Their underlying numbers and actual results made a 180 degree turn which took them from an average side to one of the better in La Liga.
If we take a deeper look at their numbers it’s becoming even more visible.
The graph above shows how Real Betis ’Expected goals (xG)’ trend has changed through the season where the green line is their own xG and the red line the opponents’. This is a good indication of the team’s performances beyond the results due to its ability to give us a hint on how they’ve fared in terms of chances created and chances conceded, which in many ways is the essence of football.
As we see, Real Betis started out slowly and that was the vibe around them up until round 12–13. Somewhere around those game weeks the trend lines started to change to the better where the last 10 games have made it clear that Pellegrini is on the right path.
If we look into detail on some key metrics they show just how big of a jump they’ve made from before New Year’s Eve to after it. Real Betis take more points, score more goals, concede less goals, have a better ’expected goal differential (xGD)’ (all numbers are per game) and a higher xG per shot. That last number is particularly interesting, because up until the switch of years there was no other team in La Liga that took shots from worse positions than Real Betis despite shooting most in the league bar Real Madrid and Barcelona. Something they’ve now improved.
As a consequence of them already taking a lot of shots, the improvement in that particular area is small. ’Shots against’ is the only category where Pellegrini’s men have become worse, but if we look at the average xG of all these shots we’ll instead see a clear improvement. Before the 31:st of December Real Betis averaged 0.17 xG per shot against while the same number is at 0.06 after the 31st of December, which is an extreme difference and takes them from posting one of the worst numbers in the league to one of the best. On top of this they also enter their opponents penalty area more often post 2020 as well as protecting their own penalty area in a better way.
Tactical adjustments such as pressing and passes per shot looks fairly similar during both these periods. Real Betis PPDA (Passes Allowed Per Defensive Action) has moved from 8.05 (5:th in the league) to 9.28 (8:th) which do indicate on a slightly less aggressive press but on the other hand are their pressing actions on the final third per game almost identical (29.5 vs 29).
In possession they averaged 37 passes per shot before the 31st of December and 36 passes per shot after, also a very small difference.
As you can hear, everything is fantastic around Benito Vilamarín and Real Betis. But why has this sudden change occurred?
- Sergio Canales
Most would agree on the statement that Sergio Canales is the team’s best player, the difference with and without him is significant. Unfortunately for Real Betis, a Canales-less team became reality during the last two months of 2020 and the effects of losing one of the league’s best ball carriers and creators was evident.
With Canales:
- 19 starts
- 11–2–6 record
- 1.52–1.26 goal differential per game
- 1.84 points per game
Without Canales:
- 8 games
- 2–1–5 record
- 0.87–2.00 goal differential
- 0.87 points per game
The difference with and without is, as I mentioned, huge. It’s fully reasonable to argue about him as the single most important player to any team in La Liga in competition with Celta Vigo’s Iago Aspas.
This season might have started out in decent fashion (with emphasize on ”decent”) but when Canales got injured Real Betis collapsed. When he later returned to a project who slowly started to gain pace he managed to be the catalyst to success, because since his comeback in the ’Gran Derbí’ against Sevilla on the 2nd of January they’ve been a different side.
2. Víctor Ruiz
The experienced Spanish centre-back arrived on a free transfer during the summer and even though he started his Real Betis spell on the bench in favor of Marc Bartra he has now turned into one of the most important players in the team. If the duo Bartra/Mandi always is an accident waiting to happen, Ruiz and Mandi have formed a surprisingly solid pairing, mostly due to the former’s impressive performances.
It might be worth throwing in a caveat about Victor Ruíz historically shaky tendencies, so a dip in form or a big mistake is possibly around the corner, but at the moment he’s the main man in the best centre-back pairing ’Los Verdiblancos’ has seen in a long time.
3. Patience
During Real Betis’ horrific start this fall when they in every possible way was La Liga’s worst defensive team and closer to relegation than the top half many people wanted to see change at the bench. But the Real Betis board remained calm, rightfully so, and gave Pellegrini time to put his mark on this team. And it paid off, as it often does when skillful managers are in charge.
Pellegrini has found his line-up and implemented clear ideas, something he struggled to find initially. But Bartra has become Ruíz, a hard-working Ruibal is given more minutes and Borja Iglesias and Nabil Fekir have found form. Things sometimes just need time to fall into place, something Pellegrini and Real Betis are proof of this season.
The future looks bright in Sevilla and not least among the green-and-white’s. Manuel Pellegrini has done as good as anyone could expect, if not better, and unless they collapse completely come the end of this season it will be summarized as a success. Thoughts, opinions and prophecies about Real Betis are now filled with optimism and nothing else, just as it should be. Because Real Betis is a big club that belongs in the upper tiers.
