The numbers behind the rise of Pedri

One and a half year ago you would have to be a special kind of interested in Spanish football to know who Pedri was. Sure, the rumors about a special talent had reached the big clubs, he was for instance denied by Real Madrid during a trial in 2018, but there were few outside the clubs’ scouting network who knew about the youngster. So when FC Barcelona made the deal with Pedri official back in September 2019 it was a surprise for many. With a grand total of three professional games in his life he wasn’t exactly experienced. It would, however, be the start of a success story like few others. Pedri’s first professional season ended with 36 games for Las Palmas in La Segunda, a transfer to arguably the biggest club on earth and debut call-up’s to three different national teams (U17, U18 and U19). At the start of this season he also received the inevitable U21 call-up.

But with all due respect to La Segunda and Las Palmas, Barcelona and La Liga is something else. As expected he got a spot on the bench initially but the minutes grew with time and as of today the starlet has started 15 out of Barça’s 23 league games along with several one’s in Champions League and Copa del Rey.

Pedri has usually formed a midfield trio together with Sergio Busquets and Frenkie de Jong where he’s positioned to the left, which is very clear when looking at his Sofascore heatmap.

Even though he has a clear space where he mainly operates he’s not afraid to roam around, and he has the freedom to do it. He has also started in several positions such as on either flank or as a part in a double pivot.

Let’s look at his radar from Statsbomb.

Pedri is a passing master who’s involved in build-up which is visible through his high value in xGBuildup (a metric based on your involvement in the build-up to a shot but where the shot and last pass to the shot are excluded) and xG Assisted. In both these metrics he ranks in the 98th percentile compared to all other CM’s in Europe’s top 5 leagues. His defensive numbers are also notable where he averages 4.45 pressure regains per 90 which is a metric where you are awarded a pressure regain if your team wins the ball back within five seconds from the moment you press the opponent. This metric is obviously very dependent on your role in the team and the team’s general pressing quality but it’s nonetheless an effective way to measure defensive intensity, and Pedri is both active and effective.

Room for improvement exists and anything else would be odd considering that he’s still 18-years old. His tendency to cause turnovers is one such thing where he averages 2.79 turnovers per 90, a number placing him in the 6th percentile. Context is key per usual though and considering Pedri’s relatively advanced role he’s used to taking risks in possession. He’s also operating in areas where it’s very crowded and the pressure is intense. Players who mainly are active in the final third, and are expected to create chances, will always lose the ball more often than others. His influence in the final third is also bigger than any other central midfielder’s in La Liga with his 34.1 touches per 90. Sergio Canales is second with 28.7.

As mentioned, Pedri’s xG Assisted numbers are among the very best compared to central midfielders in Europe’s top 5 leagues but the truth is that those numbers are standing strong compared to players in all positions in La Liga as well.

This graph shows that Pedri is top 10 in both xG Assisted and shot-creating actions (the last two actions leading to a shot). This is a sign of significant involvement in both the last, and second last pass, before a shot. A small footnote regarding the graph is that Messi is excluded due to his superiority, he would be way to the right and make the graph borderline unreadable.

For the protocol we will also have a look at the most frequent shot-assisters in La Liga and Pedri is coming up good there as well.

Pedri’s numbers are of course boosted by the fact that he’s playing in such a great attacking team as Barça but that fact fades away in comparison to the age factor which makes his achievements remarkable. Instead of a slow growth and carefully giving Pedri minutes over the season he has become a key player immediately. Apart from Messi it’s completely reasonable to argue for the young Spaniard as the team’s best player this season. It has also been clear that Messi sees a playmate in Pedri whose technique and vision is on a level good enough to actually connect with the greatest himself.

I posted a tweet a few months ago about his functional technique and I feel it summarizes his profile pretty well. He’s not always the most spectacular watch but his ability to take the right decision, to know when he should keep the ball within the team or risk it with a through ball, is phenomenal. To find that balance during a career is unusual, to have it at the age of 18 is unique.

Let’s take a look at his numbers one last time and here to help us is the football statistician Hugh Klein who has created a website named macro-football.com where he makes player cards based on a model made by himself.

Klein uses his model to place every player in a percenile to quantify a player’s influence on his team. A higher rank indicates bigger influence. As seen Pedri ranks in the 98th percentile in the overall category which indicates that he’s among the most influential players to his team compared to all other top 5 league players.

If you want to know more about the exact formula behind the model I suggest to visit the website I referred to above.

Pedri’s performances this season have been one of few bright spots in a dark Barcelona tunnel and considering his age and brilliant underlying numbers it’s a lot indicating that he’s at the top to stay.